I have analyzed PepsiCo's financial statements to determine whether the reported figures suggest that the company's shares are a good value and reasonable risk for prudent investors. The way I performed this analysis was inspired by Benjamin Graham's recommendations in "The Intelligent Investor," which was first published in 1949 and is still one of the best-known books about value investing. I modified Graham's specific suggestions to fit modern times; however, the goal is the same: find stocks that are inexpensive relative to the company's strengths and aren't excessively risky.
The analysis evaluates investment suitability by gauging how well the company satisfies seven criteria. GREEN, YELLOW, and RED grades indicate whether each gauge is fully satisfied, partially satisfied, or not satisfied at all. An Overall Score between zero and 100, which takes the details of all gauges into account, is also computed. While the analysis includes both growth and value criteria, the calculation of the Overall Score has been designed to favor companies that exhibit good value characteristics over fast growing firms that are expensive. An Overall Score above 60 isn't easy to achieve, and it signifies that the company has enough value-investment appeal to be worth examining in more detail.
First, a quick review of the company itself.
PepsiCo is a global food and beverage company. In addition to the eponymous soft drinks, PepsiCo also owns the Frito-Lay snack food business. In April 2020, PepsiCo acquired energy drink maker Rockstar for $3.85 billion. PepsiCo bought SodaStream in 2018 for $3.2 billion.
PepsiCo recorded profits of $7 billion on revenue of $69 billion during the last year. In the quarter that ended on 5 September 2020, PepsiCo earned $1.66 per share (excluding certain items), which significantly beat the $1.49 Wall Street consensus forecast. See https://tinyurl.com/y5gp5s3m for PepsiCo's most recent quarterly report.
Shares of PepsiCo now trade for about $146 each. These shares can be found in the Standard and Poors 500, Standard and Poors 100, Standard and Poors Dividend Aristocrats, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 1000 stock indices.
Analysis Results:
PepsiCo's grades on the seven investment criteria are listed below, along with some of the financial figures that influenced these color assignments
1. The Company's Size is Substantial: GREEN
Market Value: $202.7 billion (mega-cap)
2. The Company is Conservatively Financed: RED
Current ratio = 0.9 (>2.0 is conservative)
Long-term debt/Equity = 279% (<100% is conservative)
3. The Company Generates Stable Earnings: YELLOW
Nineteen positive quarterly earnings reports in last 5 years (almost perfect)
Earnings variability = 28% (high)
4. The Company Exhibits Earnings Growth: RED
Owner Earnings growth rate (trailing year) = -6% (poor)
Owner Earnings growth rate (five-year average) = -7% (poor)
Free Cash Flow growth rate (trailing year) = 5% (weak)
Free Cash Flow growth rate (five-year average) = -5% (poor)
5. The Company is Efficiently Profitable: GREEN
Cash Flow Return On Invested Capital = 20% (good)
Operating Profit/Sales = 14.5% (good)
6. The Company Pays a Healthy Dividend: YELLOW
Dividends paid for the last 7 years or longer
Dividend 5-year average growth rate = 8% (fair)
Dividend = 87% of last year's FCF (sustainability is a significant concern)
7. The Company's Shares are Fairly Valued: RED
Price/Owner Earnings (last year) = 38.8 (very expensive)
Price/GAAP Earnings (five-year average) = 27.3 (high)
Free Cash Flow/Market Value = 3.1% (low, less than the five-year average of 4.0%)
Acquirer's Multiple = 23.9 (expensive)
Price/Book Value = 14.9 (more expensive than the five-year average of 13.3)
Price/Sales = 3.0 (more expensive than the five-year average of 2.6)
In summary, the analysis assigned PepsiCo two GREEN, two YELLOW, and three RED grades. The resulting Overall Score is 25 of the 100 possible points, which is low. The score is below the 60-point GCFR threshold, and, therefore, PepsiCo does not satisfy the GCFR criteria for value-investment consideration at this time.
The Overall Score would only increase to 51 points if the share price were to fall by 50%, from $145.85 to $72.66, all else being equal. Or, perhaps, the next earnings report from PepsiCo will include results that move the company's score up towards the threshold (or sink the score further). Check this blog occasionally for updates on PepsiCo's performance and the resulting GCFR score.
This analysis reported here is a limited evaluation of the subject company. It does not consider all material facts about the company's operations, finances, or future prospects. The analysis relies on publicly available financial data assumed, but not guaranteed, to be accurate and consistent. Readers are strongly encouraged to perform verify all data and perform their own independent analyses. Other analytical approaches and screening criteria will be more applicable to investors having different goals, circumstances, and tolerance for investment risk. This post is not and should not be considered investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The author might have a long or short position in the subject company and/or its competitors. The analytical approach, the criteria used, and all calculations are subject to change without notification.
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