MMM: Look Ahead to December 2020 Quarterly Results

This "look-ahead" post discusses how I came up with an estimate for 3M Company's earnings for fiscal 2020's fourth quarter, which ended on December 31, 2020, by predicting each element of its Income Statement, from top-line Revenue to bottom-line Earnings Per Share (EPS) and everything in between. 

Once the company’s official results become available on January 26, I will compare the published Income Statement to the prediction and identify any surprises, positive or negative.  Examining these differences can identify what factors (e.g., profit margins, non-GAAP expenses, tax rates, share buybacks) are driving changes to a company's financial performance.

But, before we get into the details, let's take a step back and start with background information about 3M.

Formed more than a century ago as Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing, the 3M Company is now a conglomerate that sells a wide range of innovative products for Safety and Industrial, Transportation and Electronics, Health Care, and Consumer markets.  While many 3M products have been designed for demanding commercial and medical applications, consumers might be more familiar with the company's Scotch® tape and Post-It Notes®.  COVID-19 has affected 3M's businesses in different ways:  sales of N-95 masks and certain other health care and consumer products have grown, while sales of industrial products have fallen.  In December 2020, 3M announced it would be taking actions to eliminate redundancies and leverage analytical data to become more efficient in both operations and marketing.

With a market value of about $100 billion on a fully diluted basis, 3M is included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard and Poors 500, Standard and Poors 100, Standard and Poors Dividend Aristocrats, New York Stock Exchange Composite, and Russell 1000 indices.

3M recorded profits of $5 billion on revenue of $32 billion during the last year. In the quarter that ended on 30 September 2020, 3M earned $2.43 per share, which beat the $2.26 Wall Street consensus forecast. See https://tinyurl.com/y23nrbbb for 3M's most recent quarterly report.

Revenue in the September quarter totaled $8.4 billion, 4% more than last year's $8.0 billion. The Safety and Industrial business was responsible for 36% of overall revenue, and this unit's revenue grew by 6.9% compared to the year-earlier result. The Transportation and Electronics business contributed 28% of revenue, and this unit's revenue fell by 7.4%. The Health Care unit supplied 26% of revenue, and the amount grew by 25.5%.

My starting point, if available, when estimating earnings is guidance provided by the company's management to financial analysts.  It's true that the company may downplay expectations somewhat to avoid disappointments, but the top managers ought to know better than anyone else how well their products and services are selling.  I also look for other information about the company in the news, and I take advantage of trends in the company's historical results.  While it makes my task a little more difficult, I also try to estimate earnings that conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).  Non-GAAP results, which most professionals focus on, are somewhat arbitrary and often exclude meaningful items.

3M's management, noting the uncertain impact of COVID-19, decided to forego providing the normal guidance for the fourth quarter when the company published its third-quarter results last October. Nevertheless, the company has shared two key pieces of information.  3M announced in early December that it had sales of $5.7 billion combined in October and November.  The company, while remarking that "significant macroeconomic uncertainty remains" estimated that total sales for the fourth quarter would be between $8.2 to $8.4 billion.  I'll use the average of these two figures.

In addition, 3M announced that corporate restructuring activities would lead to a pre-tax charge of $250 to $300 million, and about half this amount would be recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.  The restructuring charge may be excluded from non-GAAP results, but I include it.

The following baseline Income Statement tries to take into account the information mentioned above, and it's consistent with the company's historical results. Earnings are estimated at $1.18 billion ($2.02 per share).

Please note that my organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which I use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

 #3m  #mmm  #gauges #gcfr  #gcfr2 #lookahead #nac_financialanalysis

CAT: Look Ahead to December 2020 Quarterly Results

This "look-ahead" post discusses how I came up with an estimate for Caterpillar's earnings for fiscal 2020's fourth quarter, which ended on December 31, 2020, by predicting each element of its Income Statement, from top-line Revenue to bottom-line Earnings Per Share (EPS) and everything in between. 

Once the company’s official results become available on January 29, I will compare the published Income Statement to the prediction and identify any surprises, positive or negative.  Examining these differences can identify what factors (e.g., profit margins, non-GAAP expenses, tax rates, share buybacks) are driving changes to a company's financial performance.

But, before we get into the details, let's take a step back and start with background information about Caterpillar.

Caterpillar is a leading manufacturer and servicer of machinery for construction, mining, energy production, and transportation.  The company also has finance subsidiaries that help customers and dealers purchase and lease Caterpillar and certain other products.  Demand for Caterpillar's products tends to vary as economic conditions strengthen and weaken and commodity prices rise and fall.  Not surprisingly, the slowdown induced by COVID-19 took a significant bite out of Caterpillar's sales in 2020.  Prospects for 2021 seem better.

With a market value of about $100 billion on a fully diluted basis, Caterpillar is included in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard and Poors 500, Standard and Poors 100, Standard and Poors Dividend Aristocrats, New York Stock Exchange Composite, and Russell 1000 indices.

Caterpillar recorded profits of $3 billion on revenue of $44 billion during the last year. In the quarter that ended on 30 September 2020, Caterpillar earned $1.34 per share (excluding certain items), which significantly beat the $1.17 Wall Street consensus forecast. See https://tinyurl.com/y383pnzo for Caterpillar's most recent quarterly report.

Revenue in the September quarter totaled $9.9 billion, 23% less than last year's $12.8 billion. The Construction Industries business was responsible for 41% of overall revenue, and this unit's revenue fell by 23.3% compared to the year-earlier result. The Resource Industries business contributed 18% of revenue, and this unit's revenue fell by 21.4%. The Energy & Transportation unit supplied 42% of revenue, and the amount fell by 23.7%.

My starting point, if available, when estimating earnings is guidance provided by the company's management to financial analysts.  It's true that the company may downplay expectations somewhat to avoid disappointments, but the top managers ought to know better than anyone else how well their products and services are selling.  I also look for other information about the company in the news, and I take advantage of trends in the company's historical results.  While it makes my task a little more difficult, I also try to estimate earnings that conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).  Non-GAAP results, which most professionals focus on, are somewhat arbitrary and often exclude meaningful items.

Caterpillar's management communicated their expectations for the December 2020 quarter last October. This is a start, but it's not specific enough for my purposes.

This guidance is augmented by the monthly retail statistics published by Caterpillar; e.g., the November data shows that worldwide sales of machines were down by 11 percent.  See https://investors.caterpillar.com/financials/retail-statistics/default.aspx 

A data point that may not carry much weight in this unusual year is that Caterpillar's fourth-quarter revenues in recent years have, on average, been about 5.5 percent higher than revenue in the preceding quarter.

The following baseline Income Statement tries to take into account the factors mentioned above and other historical results.  I wouldn't say I have a whole lot of confidence in these figures, but they seem reasonable based on the information I have.  Earnings are estimated at $556 million ($1.02 per share).

Please note that my organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which I use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

#cat #caterpillar #lookahead #gcfr #gcfr2 #gauges

IBM: Look Ahead to December 2020 Quarterly Results

This "look-ahead" post discusses how I came up with an estimate for IBM's earnings for fiscal 2020's fourth quarter, which ended on December 31, 2020, by predicting each element of its Income Statement, from top-line Revenue to bottom-line Earnings Per Share (EPS) and everything in between. 

Once the company’s official results become available on January 21, I will compare the published Income Statement to the prediction and identify any surprises, positive or negative.  Examining these differences can identify what factors (e.g., profit margins, non-GAAP expenses, tax rates, share buybacks) are driving changes to a company's financial performance.

But, let's take a step back and start with background information about IBM.

IBM was the first giant computer company, and it was once one of the largest companies in the world.  When selling computing hardware became less profitable, IBM leverage its ties to the corporate world and increased its focus on information technology services for businesses.  Always a research powerhouse, the company subsequently developed cloud-computing and artificial intelligence services (e.g., "Deep Blue"), but, despite seeming advantages, IBM's annual revenue has been declining slowly for years.  IBM started to reinvent itself more dramatically in 2019 when it acquired Red Hat, a leading open-source software firm, for $34 billion.  The next step came in October 2020 when IBM announced it would spin off its managed infrastructure services unit into a separate, publicly traded company.  This business is currently part of the Global Technology Services division, and it brings in revenue of about $19 billion per year.  

With a market value of about $110 billion on a fully diluted basis, IBM is part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard and Poors 500, Standard and Poors 100, New York Stock Exchange Composite, and Russell 1000

IBM recorded profits of $8 billion on revenue of $75 billion during the four quarters that ended in September.  Revenue in the September quarter totaled $17.6 billion, 3% less than last year's $18.0 billion.  The Global Technology Services business was responsible for 37% of overall revenue, and this unit's revenue fell by 3.6% compared to the year-earlier result.  The Cloud & Cognitive Software business contributed 32% of revenue, and this unit's revenue grew by 6.8%.  The Global Business Services unit supplied 23% of revenue, and the amount fell by 4.7%.  See https://tinyurl.com/y34rev9g for IBM's most recent quarterly report.

My starting point, if available, when estimating earnings is guidance provided by the company's management to financial analysts.  It's true that the company may downplay expectations somewhat to avoid disappointments, but the top managers ought to know better than anyone else how well their products and services are selling.  I also look for other information about the company in the news, and I take advantage of trends in the company's historical results.  While it makes my task a little more difficult, I also try to estimate earnings that conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).  Non-GAAP results, which most professionals focus on, are somewhat arbitrary and often exclude meaningful items.

IBM's management did not, as mentioned above, communicate expectations, or "guidance," for the December 2020 quarter with their third-quarter report; however, they had previously signaled that the fourth quarter would include a hefty $2.3 billion ($2.36 per share) restructuring charge.  This charge has to be included in the baseline for the results that comply with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which are the kind I follow.

Another more positive factor that has to be considered when setting expectations is that the fourth quarter is typically the best one of the year for IBM.

The following baseline Income Statement takes into account what I know about IBM and its historical results, but I have less confidence in the figures than I normally might.  The extent to which the company can compete effectively against large cloud service providers is still to be determined, and COVID-19 only makes the outlook even murkier.  The earnings estimate is a loss of $88 million, minus $0.10 per share.

Please note that my organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which I use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

#ibm #lookahead #gauges #gcfr #gcfr2 #nac_financialanalysis

INTC: Look Ahead to December 2020 Quarterly Results

This "look-ahead" post discusses how I came up with an estimate for Intel's earnings for fiscal 2020's fourth quarter, which ended on December 31, 2020, by predicting each element of its Income Statement, from top-line Revenue to bottom-line Earnings Per Share (EPS) and everything in between. 

Once the company’s official results become available on January 21, I will compare the published Income Statement to the prediction and identify any surprises, positive or negative.  Examining these differences can identify what factors (e.g., profit margins, non-GAAP expenses, tax rates, share buybacks) are driving changes to a company's financial performance.

But, before we get into the details, let's take a step back and start with background information about Intel.

Intel makes integrated circuits (i.e., "chips") used in computers, servers, and many other devices. Once the undisputed leader of the semiconductor industry, the emergence of mobile computing benefited competing firms that did a better job producing chips that consume less electrical power, a key consideration.  Intel has also lost market share because of delays it has experienced when manufacturing new generations of chips.  These and other factors forced Intel to consider other opportunities.  Intel acquired Altera Corp, a maker of programmable logic devices, in 2015, and Mobileye, which developed technology for autonomous driving, in 2017.  The Intel Security Group (ISecG) was a focus but it was divested in April 2017. Intel then divested most of its  smartphone modem business in December 2019.  More recently, Intel agreed to sell its NAND memory and storage business to SK hynix for $9 billion.

With a market value of about $200 billion on a fully diluted basis, Intel is part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard and Poors 500, Standard and Poors 100, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 1000 stock indices.

Intel earned roughly $22 billion on revenue of $78 billion during the four-quarter period that ended on 26 September 2020.  Revenue in the most recent quarter totaled $18.3 billion, 4% less than last year's $19.2 billion. The Client Computing Group business was responsible for 54% of overall revenue, and this unit's revenue grew by 1.4% compared to the year-earlier result. The Data Center Group business contributed 32% of revenue, and this unit's revenue fell by 7.5%. The Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group unit supplied 6% of revenue, and the amount fell by 10.6%.

My starting point, if available, when estimating earnings is guidance provided by the company's management to financial analysts.  It's true that the company may downplay expectations somewhat to avoid disappointments, but the top managers ought to know better than anyone else how well their products and services are selling.  I also look for other information about the company in the news, and I take advantage of trends in the company's historical results.  While it makes my task a little more difficult, I also try to estimate earnings that conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP).  Non-GAAP results, which most professionals focus on, are somewhat arbitrary and often exclude meaningful items.

Intel's management communicated their expectations, or "guidance" as it's known, for the December 2020 quarter last October (https://tinyurl.com/y3hw3vb7). 

I start with these guidance figures, but some additional assumptions are needed to prepare a complete Income Statement.  The following is the result, and I will use it to determine how Intel's fourth quarter differed from what was predicted.

Please note that my organization of revenues, expenses, gains, and losses, which I use for all analyses, can and often does differ in material respects from company-used formats.  The standardization facilitates cross-company comparisons.

#intel #intc #gcfr #gcfr2 #lookahead #nac_financialanalysis

PepsiCo: Gauge Analysis (updated December 6, 2020)

I have analyzed PepsiCo's financial statements to determine whether the reported figures suggest that the company's shares are a good value and reasonable risk for prudent investors. The way I performed this analysis was inspired by Benjamin Graham's recommendations in "The Intelligent Investor," which was first published in 1949 and is still one of the best-known books about value investing. I modified Graham's specific suggestions to fit modern times; however, the goal is the same: find stocks that are inexpensive relative to the company's strengths and aren't excessively risky.

The analysis evaluates investment suitability by gauging how well the company satisfies seven criteria.  GREEN, YELLOW, and RED grades indicate whether each gauge is fully satisfied, partially satisfied, or not satisfied at all.  An Overall Score between zero and 100, which takes the details of all gauges into account, is also computed.  While the analysis includes both growth and value criteria, the calculation of the Overall Score has been designed to favor companies that exhibit good value characteristics over fast growing firms that are expensive.  An Overall Score above 60 isn't easy to achieve, and it signifies that the company has enough value-investment appeal to be worth examining in more detail. 

First, a quick review of the company itself.

PepsiCo is a global food and beverage company. In addition to the eponymous soft drinks, PepsiCo also owns the Frito-Lay snack food business. In April 2020, PepsiCo acquired energy drink maker Rockstar for $3.85 billion. PepsiCo bought SodaStream in 2018 for $3.2 billion.

PepsiCo recorded profits of $7 billion on revenue of $69 billion during the last year. In the quarter that ended on 5 September 2020, PepsiCo earned $1.66 per share (excluding certain items), which significantly beat the $1.49 Wall Street consensus forecast. See https://tinyurl.com/y5gp5s3m for PepsiCo's most recent quarterly report.

Shares of PepsiCo now trade for about $146 each.  These shares can be found in the Standard and Poors 500, Standard and Poors 100, Standard and Poors Dividend Aristocrats, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 1000 stock indices.

Analysis Results:

PepsiCo's grades on the seven investment criteria are listed below, along with some of the financial figures that influenced these color assignments

1. The Company's Size is Substantial: GREEN

    Market Value: $202.7 billion (mega-cap)

2. The Company is Conservatively Financed: RED

    Current ratio = 0.9 (>2.0 is conservative)

    Long-term debt/Equity = 279% (<100% is conservative)

3. The Company Generates Stable Earnings: YELLOW

    Nineteen positive quarterly earnings reports in last 5 years (almost perfect)

    Earnings variability = 28% (high)

4. The Company Exhibits Earnings Growth: RED

    Owner Earnings growth rate (trailing year) = -6% (poor)

    Owner Earnings growth rate (five-year average) = -7% (poor)

    Free Cash Flow growth rate (trailing year) = 5% (weak)

    Free Cash Flow growth rate (five-year average) = -5% (poor)

5. The Company is Efficiently Profitable: GREEN

    Cash Flow Return On Invested Capital = 20% (good)

    Operating Profit/Sales = 14.5% (good)

6. The Company Pays a Healthy Dividend: YELLOW

    Dividends paid for the last 7 years or longer

    Dividend 5-year average growth rate = 8% (fair)

    Dividend = 87% of last year's FCF (sustainability is a significant concern)

7. The Company's Shares are Fairly Valued: RED

    Price/Owner Earnings (last year) = 38.8 (very expensive)

    Price/GAAP Earnings (five-year average) = 27.3 (high)

    Free Cash Flow/Market Value = 3.1% (low, less than the five-year average of 4.0%)

    Acquirer's Multiple = 23.9 (expensive)

    Price/Book Value = 14.9 (more expensive than the five-year average of 13.3)

    Price/Sales = 3.0 (more expensive than the five-year average of 2.6)

In summary, the analysis assigned PepsiCo two GREEN, two YELLOW, and three RED grades.  The resulting Overall Score is 25 of the 100 possible points, which is low.  The score is below the 60-point GCFR threshold, and, therefore, PepsiCo does not satisfy the GCFR criteria for value-investment consideration at this time.

The Overall Score would only increase to 51 points if the share price were to fall by 50%, from $145.85 to $72.66, all else being equal. Or, perhaps, the next earnings report from PepsiCo will include results that move the company's score up towards the threshold (or sink the score further).  Check this blog occasionally for updates on PepsiCo's performance and the resulting GCFR score.

This analysis reported here is a limited evaluation of the subject company.  It does not consider all material facts about the company's operations, finances, or future prospects.  The analysis relies on publicly available financial data assumed, but not guaranteed, to be accurate and consistent.  Readers are strongly encouraged to perform verify all data and perform their own independent analyses.  Other analytical approaches and screening criteria will be more applicable to investors having different goals, circumstances, and tolerance for investment risk.  This post is not and should not be considered investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. The author might have a long or short position in the subject company and/or its competitors. The analytical approach, the criteria used, and all calculations are subject to change without notification.

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 #pepsico    #pep    #gauges  #gcfr  #gcfr2 #valueinvesting   #nac_financialanalysis